What Are My Real Chances? A New IVF Calculator for Patients

Starting IVF often means stepping into the unknown. How many cycles might it take? What

are the realistic odds of success? How much might it cost, financially and emotionally? These are questions patients ask every day, and until now, clear answers have been hard to come by.

The University of Aberdeen has just launched a redesigned version of its free IVF success calculator, and it's built specifically to help patients get clearer, more personal answers.

What Is It?

The calculator is an online tool that estimates your individual chances of having a baby through IVF or ICSI (a form of IVF where a single sperm is injected directly into an egg). Rather than giving you a generic statistic, it takes your own circumstances, such as your age and specific fertility diagnosis, and turns national treatment data into a tailored prediction.

It's designed to answer one of the questions patients find hardest to grasp: not just "will this work?", but "how many rounds might I realistically need, and when should I expect my chances to level off?" The tool can show your cumulative chances of success across up to six cycles, which is especially relevant now that updated NICE guidance allows for up to six full funded cycles of IVF for women under 40 in some circumstances.

How Do You Use It?

The calculator now offers three separate pathways, depending on where you are in your fertility journey:

• Not yet started treatment – for those at the very beginning, weighing up their options

• Had a first embryo transfer – for those who have taken their first step and want to understand what comes next

• Completed a full round and considering another – for those deciding whether to continue

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You simply select the pathway that matches your situation, answer some straightforward questions, and receive a personalised estimate of your chances of success.

Why You Can Trust the Numbers

This isn't guesswork. The calculator is powered by data from every licensed fertility treatment carried out in the UK, collected by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA). The original version launched in 2016, and this new edition has been updated with a further six years of national data, giving a fuller and more current picture of real-world success rates.

Just as importantly, the tool has been completely rebuilt around the patient experience. The original calculator was designed as a scientific model first and a patient tool second. This time, researchers worked directly with people who have been through fertility treatment, supported by the Fertility Alliance charity, to make sure the new version is genuinely clear and easy to use, not just statistically sound.

Why This Matters

Fertility treatment is a significant commitment of time, money and emotional energy. Having a realistic, personalised sense of your chances can help you plan each step with more confidence, whether that's deciding how many cycles to budget for or simply knowing what to expect emotionally along the way.

Try the Calculator

You can access the free calculator here:

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This calculator was developed by Dr David McLernon, Senior Research Fellow in Medical Statistics at the University of Aberdeen, together with Dr Milan Markovic and postgraduate students from the University's Aberdeen Software Factory, part of the School of Natural and Computing Sciences. The redesign was supported by user feedback and volunteers recruited with the assistance of the Fertility Alliance charity.